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A couple of weeks ago (before partial lock-down) I was at a party and was introduced to my Cousin’s new Partner who asked me how business was going. His Dad (a CEO of a well-respected Australian organisation) had once said to him, if you want to know what is really happening in the economy ask a Recruiter.

And so here are the questions I have been asked quite a lot

1. What is happening with Recruitment?

• Recruitment is at an all-time stand still. Temp placements have dropped, perm jobs are coming in dribs and drabs but as quick as they are coming in, some are being rescinded.
   

1. What do you project will happen?

• We are preparing for 6 very quiet months and then expecting a slow and steady increase.
   

1. Do you think it has reached rock bottom?

• Definitely not. I personally think there is more to come.
   

1. What is recruitment activity like?

• We are talking with a lot of candidates and clients at length. Any hiring activity that is taking place is very slow.
   

1. How are you? How is the team?

• There are moments when it's tough and the silence speaks volumes because words sometimes cannot do justice for what is in the heart and mind. However we have a healthy business with a strong foundation and core. Our team is incredible. They are supportive of each other and continue to remain positive, motivated and determined.

And here are the facts.

• Of the 13 million Australian employees in mid-march ABS data suggests that 780,000 people lost their jobs. 90% of those in the first week of April. 
• A breakdown of job losses by age groups follows
• Under the age of 20     9.9%
• 20-29 age range        8.8%
• 30-39 years             5.5%
• 40’s                      4.3%
• 50’s                     3.8%
• 60’s                       4%
• 70’s plus               9.7%
• The treasury department is, perhaps optimistically, estimating that the unemployment rate will peak at 10%. This number has been somewhat blurred by Job Keeper wage subsidy. In reality, it is expected that more than 15% of the Australian labour force may be effectively without work.
• In recent years, Australia has relied on an increasing population to boost consumer spend and demand. In response to COVID-19, Australia has seen and will continue to see the biggest reduction in population growth since WWII.

And some findings from Seek:

• Employment demand has fallen 34% year on year across all industries and locations. In demand roles (certain Healthcare & Medical as well as some cleaning services) are highly focused on COVID-19 response.
• Seek job ads are down nationally by 68.6% compared to same time last year. All states and territories have been impacted with Vic at 39.1% being the hardest hit.
• The rapid decline of the labour market saw a slump in jobs peaking at 64.6% in the last week of March (April figures for this have not been released yet).
• Industries hit the hardest include Advertising, Arts & Media, Sales, Design & Architecture, Sports & Recreation and Hospitality/Tourism.
• Surprisingly the total number of candidates actively seeking work is down by 20% from February this year. Reasons may include:
• ​Those in permanent jobs are not looking. Better the devil you know.
• A sentiment that most businesses are closed, there are no jobs.
• A focus on keeping things stable in the household.​
• Application rates for Call Centre & Customer Service roles have increased by more than six times over the last three weeks.
• 82% of Australians say their job has been directly impacted by COVID-19 with 30% having their hours reduced or losing their role completely. 

And then there is the good news

• With our partial lock-down Australia has seen a flattening of the COVID-19 curve. And we have seen most states begin to relax regulations. This is wonderful.
• The support for many local businesses has been extremely strong. There has been an intentional and very deliberate move to support locally owned businesses who are not backed by overseas investors. 
• Buying from companies that are 100% Australian owned and operated ensures that the money stays in Australia and majority of it within the local community.

And then there is this:

For now, where possible and where applicable and in accordance with government regulations, the only requirement is that we as individuals who make up the entity of a business must continue to move forward whether that is by an inch or a mile. Movement forward is the only requirement.

Australia really is the lucky country. A country I love. Let us all do our best to look after the Australian people, economy and environment.

And please continue to support local and wholly Australian owned companies (and yes, very proudly I have to say that includes us).

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Date published:  04/05/2020

Author:  Urszula Lusk